+ We are looking for an increase in the US unemployment rate, but to stay
below 10% (for now) at a 9.9% level. We are looking for an increase to a
10.3% peak in the months ahead. Payrolls are seen falling 150,000 - remember
unemployment can also be caused by increased labour force participation.
+ We expect a 0.2% increase in average earnings, which will be some comfort
to those who actually have a job. However, the CASH survey of consumers
weakened again in October (now at the lowest level since July), in part on
household finances.
+ Following India's purchase of gold earlier this weak, there has been a
mild amount of conjecture about China. India and China hold less of their
reserves in gold than do many central banks. An official pointed out China
has limited incentive to buy from the IMF, as a major gold producer.
+ Fannie Mae has casually mentioned that it could do with a further USD15bn
of cash, if the US government has any to spare. Cash injections to financial
institutions are not new news, but it does remind markets of the lingering
problems in US housing.
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